Russia’s vision for post-war Ukraine includes continued control over Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Russian President Putin has stated that 50% of the electricity from the plant could be sold to Ukraine at a low price, with the rest of the electricity going to Russia.
The standard reaction from Ukrainians and those supporting them is to point to Russia’s use of energy prices as a trap. Cheap fuel and energy has been a hallmark of Russian attempts to control its neighbors, and Europe writ broadly, since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Tying countries to long-term gas deals has been a feature of Russian relations that led on the one hand to complaints about paying too much when prices are low and civil unrest when countries tried to bring domestic gas supplies closer to peak prices. A dependency on Russian good will follows.
Considering that ZNPP produced almost 29.3 GWh of electricity in 2016 and had been undergoing a series of modernizations since then, its effect on the base load of the Ukrainian power grid is hard to overestimate.
The Current State of ZNPP
ZNPP was occupied by invading Russian forces in early March 2022. The plant currently has only one reactor in a hot shut-down state to provide steam for the other reactors, which are cold shut-down. Operationally, it has been under the control of Rosatom since being occupied.
Chaliy’s Point
In an interview with Suspilne Novyny on 29 December 2025, former Ukrainian ambassador to the United States Valeriy Chaliy explained that the thrust of Russia’s intent goes far beyond prices. The large-scale invasion of Ukraine happened weeks after Ukraine disconnected completely from Russia’s electrical power transmission system and joined the European power grid. In doing so, Russia not only lost a tool for leverage, plants such as Burshtyn Power Island and ZNPP could supply Europe’s need for more power as well. Europe would be strengthened as much as Ukraine.
Another angle on ZNPP
Weakening Europe by removing Ukraine as a source of electrical power and preventing Ukraine’s European integration are seen in some corners as reasons for the timing of the full scale invasion. Now, considering the condition not only of the plant itself but the surrounding infrastructure, the cost of renovating the whole in order to bring ZNPP back on line is going to be a factor in negotiations.
For one thing, the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in on 6 June 2023 drained away the cooling source for ZNPP. This will need to be rebuilt, as the current wells cooling the single reactor will be insufficient for the whole. Furthermore, three of the four 750KV power lines going to the plant have been destroyed, and total reconstruction will be required.
Funding these reconstructions has not entered the peace talks, at least publicly.
Dark Statecraft 
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